This is my first blog, inspired by Amal Ghandour who wrote a sharp analysis about the current political situation in Lebanon:
Thinking Fits: WikiLeaks, PEW and Hezbollah
My comment:
Dear Amal,
I loved your analysis about the cornered Hezbollah. But your last sentence makes me suspect you wish the Hezb and its masses of supporters in Lebanon are driven by common sense, that they are able to act rationally under duress.
I fear the chances are very high that they go berserk at some point. Ergo: violent and suicidal.
I fear the chances are very high that they go berserk at some point. Ergo: violent and suicidal.
Not only because they are Shia and subconsciously feel they need to follow the path of Hussein. But mainly for the banal reason that violent movements tend to sink slowly and surely in a state of self delusion.
They even start to believe at some point their own propaganda ("Israel killed Harari", "false witnesses and Zionist agents everywhere").
Then they miscalculate, receive a suicidal order (probably from the Faqih in Teheran) and dramatically hit the wall.
The sad part is that it would be bloody and very ugly - and not at all as legendary and heroic as Hussein's final hours.
Anyhow, I very much hope your analysis is the correct one.
Fouad
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